Demographic profile of City and County

For a charity like ours to perform well and deliver our objectives we need to understand the local demographics and environment we operate in. We are living at a time where there is an ageing population who are, in general, healthier and living longer than ever before. This is a cause for celebration but we also know that significant numbers of older people are struggling with poor health, poverty, loneliness and isolation. Nottinghamshire is a microcosm of that diversity that exists across the country and it is important for us to respond to those needs.

 

Nottinghamshire County

The county is largely rural but with a mixture of urban and rural districts. To the north lie Ashfield and Mansfield, both former mining areas with many of the associated social and environmental indicators of deprivation. The social and environmental diversity continues in the south of the county with urban districts surrounding the City of Nottingham as well as more rural areas neighbouring the county Leicestershire.
The number of people living in Nottinghamshire has increased by 5% between the Census of 2001 and 2011 to 785,800.  Projections estimate that this trend will continue and is due to a combination of an increase in net migration of people from both other areas of the UK and abroad, and increase in life expectancy and increasing number of births.

  

Older people in the County

Overall the age structure of Nottinghamshire is slightly older than the national average, with 19% of the population aged 65+ in 2011 compared with 17% in England. The population is predicted to continue to age (currently 158,000 over 65) and over the next seven years is expected to increase by 12% to 177,400 by 2020.  Older people are more likely to experience disability and limiting long-term illnesses. More older people in Nottinghamshire are anticipated to live alone (increasing by 14% between 2014 and 2020). Older people living alone and without access to a car in the more rural areas of Nottinghamshire, which also have poorer access to public transport (notably Newark and Sherwood and Bassetlaw), are particularly vulnerable. The ageing and increasingly isolated population has implications for future planning and delivery of services in order to meet their health and wellbeing needs.

Disability affects a large proportion of our population. Approximately one in ten adults in Nottinghamshire aged 18- 64 live with moderate/severe physical disabilities and approximately one in five people aged 65+ in Nottinghamshire are unable to manage at least one daily activity. For older people the numbers are expected to increase from 28,000 in 2014 to 33,000 by 2020.

Although the percentage of black and minority ethnic (BME) populations are relatively low in Nottinghamshire as a whole, 4% compared with 15% nationally, within the districts of Broxtowe, Gedling and Rushcliffe there are larger population groups (7% each district), mainly Asian and Mixed/Multiple Ethnic groups.  At the moment the percentage of older people from minority groups is very low (about 1%) this will increase as the younger cohorts age and is something we should be aware of as we plan our services in the future.


Nottingham City

The City of Nottingham is a relatively young city in terms of its demographic profile but has significant health and social inequalities. Neighbouring communities can have life expectancy differences of over 10 years. The city has a sizeable and mobile student population with good communication links to other parts of England. Prosperous and disadvantaged wards are often next to each other.

  

Older people in the City

Older people in the City of Nottingham have significantly higher indices of poor health. We highlight some of the key ones below but for us it illustrates the importance of promoting healthy living and preventative work with the wider population but also the need for dedicated services to all older people who are vulnerable and housebound because of their heath conditions.

Out of a total population of 313,500, the percentage of people over the age of 65 is 11.7% compared to an average across England of 16.9%. In 2021 the projected percentage stays almost the same in Nottingham (11.9%) but increases to 18.7% in England. There is a multi-cultural mix of diverse communities in the city, about 10% of the population over the age of 65, significantly higher than across England (5%).

 

Health

Life expectancy at 60 is 16.1 years for men and the England average is 18 years. One of the reasons is the percentage of people over 65 with long term limiting health problems (62.6% compared to the 53.1% English average) and those with hypertension (71.8% versus 67.9% in England).

 

Comparisons

The stark reality of the 2020 population figures, shown below; demonstrate the highest levels of need will be coming from the county of Nottinghamshire where the population is projected to grow the most over the next 6 years. The data below has been taken from the Projecting Older People Population System produced by the Oxford Brookes University.

 

 

City 2014

City 2020

County 2014

County 2020

Over 65

36,183

38,859

149,419

180,297

Over 85

5,346

5,695

18,874

26,167

BME 65 – 74

10%

 

1-2%

 

BME 85+

3%

 

0.5%

 

BME 45 -54

17%

 

4%

 

Long term conditions

19,013

19,884

78,010

88,194

Falls (hospital)

785

807

3,205

3,775

Dementia

2,663

2,783

10,728

12,793

Obesity

9,454

9,978

41,561

45,733

Depression

4,164

4,358

17,909

20,024

Not able to manage one domestic task

15,150

15,847

63,221

72,988