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Winter fuel payment prevents 12,000 deaths yearly

Published on 16 February 2015 12:01 AM

12,000 deaths prevented each year by the winter fuel payment

Excess winter deaths among the over-65s fell by a dramatic 50 per cent following the introduction of the winter fuel payment[i], according to ground-breaking new research by the Charity Age UK.[ii]

The new research, first published in The Journal of Public Health[iii], shows the 50 per cent decrease is equivalent to preventing the deaths of 12,000 older people every year who would have otherwise perished during the winter months[iv].

By controlling for other associated factors such as temperature change and household spending on energy, researchers have concluded that the cash benefit has had a really significant impact on helping many older people survive the winter months - for the first time providing statistical evidence which suggests the hugely important role that the winter fuel payment plays.

The analysis indicates that receiving a cash benefit labelled specifically as support for help with energy costs, paid during the winter, appears to prompt people to take positive steps to keep themselves warm.  These might be keeping the heating on for longer or turning up the thermostat, providing better protection against cold-related illness such as high blood pressure, heart-attacks and strokes, and ultimately avoidable, premature deaths.

Professor James Goodwin, Head of Research at Age UK, said: ‘This new research provides us with the strongest indicator yet that the winter fuel payment really does help to reduce excess winter deaths among older people. We have always known that the winter fuel payment provides a vital cash boost to help people meet these increased heating costs - we now have evidence that suggests it can literally make the difference between life and death.'

The majority of excess winter deaths are among older people[v] and shockingly, most of these deaths are caused by prolonged exposure to the cold inside people's homes[vi].  ‘Excess winter deaths' are not deaths that would have occurred anyway: they are avoidable and preventable. Yet the research also reveals that over the last 60 years 2.6 million people - the majority aged over 65 - have died unnecessarily because of the cold[vii]. 

Even today, around 25,000 older people continue to die from cold weather each year - that's one person aged over 65 every seven minutes[viii].  In addition to the human cost, there is also a clear financial price to pay in terms of increased pressure on local authorities, the NHS and the social care system. The latest estimate from Age UK is that the cost of cold homes to the NHS is around £1.36bn every year[ix].

Caroline Abrahams, Charity Director at Age UK said: ‘It is deeply sobering to think that over the last 60 years, a massive 2.6 million people in our country have died because of the cold, most of them older people. Today, a toxic combination of high energy prices, coupled with poorly insulated homes, means millions of older people are unable to afford to heat their homes to sufficient temperatures to keep themselves consistently warm and well. 

‘This new Age UK research indicates that the winter fuel payment is an important weapon in the battle against winter illness and avoidable deaths. It seems it literally saves lives by giving older people the confidence to keep the heating on for longer, and turn it up a notch or two, helping to safeguard them from the deadly risk of the cold. 

‘While we've made some progress over the years, it is unacceptable that around 25,000 older people are still dying annually from cold related illness.  A long-term solution to this public health scandal is however within our grasp in the form of an ambitious programme to bring all our housing up to a high energy efficiency standard. We need all the political parties to commit to including this in their national infrastructure plans. No older person should worry that they could die from the cold in their own home and if we invest enough in energy efficiency they wouldn't have to.'


[i] The Winter Fuel Payment was introduced in 1997-98 at just £20 a week but substantially increased in 1999/2000  and since then has been paid at between £100-300 to people who have reached/just reaching the women's state pension age in the qualifying week

[ii] Age UK Research Study on Excess Winter Mortality and Winter Fuel Payments, by Professor Jose Iparraguirre, Chief Economist at Age UK and Professor James Goodwin, Head of Research at Age UK. ‘Have winter fuel payments reduced excess winter mortality in England and Wales?' J. Iparraguirre, Journal of Public Health 2014; doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdu063 A summary is available to media by contacting the Age UK press office.

[iii] First published online: August 30, 2014

[iv] The 12,000 estimate is based on the 50% figure from the new research and the average annual number of excess winter deaths of people aged 65+ in England and Wales since 2000/1, taken from Excess Winter Mortality statistics, Office for National Statistics 


[vi] ‘Changes in seasonal mortalities with improvement in home heating in England and Wales from 1964 to 1984', Keatinge, W.R.; Coleshaw, S.R.K.; and Holmes, J.; International Journal of Biometeorology, 1989, 33:71-76.

[vii] ONS Excess Winter Mortality statistics (as in footnote iv above). These deaths occurred between the winters 1950/51and 2012/13. The Age UK research team capped it at 2012/13 as that was 25 years since the classic paper by Curwin and Devis which came out with the original ‘8,000 deaths' figure.

[viii] Age UK estimate, using a ten-year average 2003/4 to 2012/13, from Excess Winter Mortality by age group in England and Wales, ONS, November 2013.

[ix]Based on the method described in South East Regional Public Health Group Factsheet (2009) Health and Winter Warmth, which made use of a calculator produced by the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health to estimate the total cost to the NHS in England arising from cold homes. Age UK updated its figure (£859 million) using 2011 household numbers estimates for England (Office for National Statistics) and the GDP deflator (from HM Treasury's website) to inflate the estimates to 2011/12 prices.


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Last updated: Oct 06 2017

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